All prices at time of writing (Betfair Sportsbook - Gamble Responsibly 18+)
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Preview
The Supreme rarely rewards noise alone. It typically goes to a horse with genuine class, recent winning form and the tactical pace to hold position before finding again up the hill. That shape holds true again this year.
Old Park Star looks the standout. Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville have won this with the right type before, and this gelding fits the profile perfectly. His official mark of 151 is the best in the field, his recent form is solid rather than spectacular, and he arrives with enough experience to handle the occasion. That matters in the Supreme, too many favourites have travelled well and found little late.
The main threat is Talk The Talk for Joseph O’Brien. He carries a strong mark, arrives in good order and has more substance than several of the lightly-raced Mullins runners. He appeals as the solid alternative if the favourite underperforms.
Willie Mullins, as ever, holds a major hand. Leader Dallier is the most interesting on profile, especially with Paul Townend booked, but he’s short on experience for a race that often punishes it. Mighty Park could be anything, though he’s being asked to do plenty on trust after just one hurdle run.
At bigger odds, Sober Glory makes an appeal. His profile is tougher than the market suggests, his form is full of wins, and he looks the type to keep finding when others have cried enough.
The Supreme’s history is clear: it rewards proper horses, not just talking horses. Old Park Star looks the cleanest fit, but there are enough unknowns around the Mullins pair to keep the market honest.
Par & Paddock Tip: Old Park Star - 2/1
Each-way value: Sober Glory - 11/1
Arkle Novice’s Chase Preview
The Arkle is the ultimate test of jumping ability on Day One. At two miles, Cheltenham requires much more than speed and class. Horses must jump cleanly at increased tempo, maintain position down the hill, and still produce when pressured after the final fence. The Arkle can be harsh on even the most talented runners.
This year’s contest appears competitive at the top, though depth beneath the leading pair is questionable. Attention focuses on Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes, and the historical profile of recent winners supports this trend. Successful Arkle runners are typically top-class novices from prominent yards who possess sufficient pace whilst maintaining accuracy, particularly when the race intensifies. Those prone to errors receive no special treatment.
Lulamba currently possesses the strongest chasing profile. Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville understand exactly what’s required to succeed in the Arkle, and Lulamba’s current mark of 163 is superior to his rivals. His recent performances show progressive form, coming off another victory. There’s sufficient substance to suggest he can contend with the pace and pressure of a genuine Arkle. Based on current evidence, he appears to be the most suitable contender.
Kopek Des Bordes is undoubtedly the primary threat. Willie Mullins and Paul Townend in an Arkle is always formidable, and Kopek’s class has been demonstrated. However, the Arkle represents a distinctly different test from novice hurdling. The question isn’t whether Kopek possesses sufficient engine—it’s whether he can produce the clean jumping required from flagfall.
Steel Ally appeals as a longer-priced selection. Whilst clearly lacking the raw class of the leading two, he’s in form with three consecutive victories and appears most likely to progress when others are weary coming up the hill. He presents the most interesting each-way opportunity.
Par & Paddock Tip: Lulamba - 13/8
Each-Way Value: Steel Ally - 11/1
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Preview
The Fred Winter is rarely viewed as a straightforward graded novice event. This big-field handicap for four-year-olds demands specific qualities: a horse with scope for improvement in terms of assessment, capable of travelling in traffic, jumping cleanly under pressure, and finding extra after the last.
Reputation alone won’t suffice in the Fred Winter—it never has.
This year’s field appears wide open, with numerous lightly-raced horses from major juvenile yards. However, the profile that continues to appeal most is one with potential for upside rather than proven handicap experience. History suggests that horses still on the upgrade hold distinct advantages over those already exposed at this level.
Winston Junior emerges as a contender of genuine substance. He possesses a workable mark, arrives having recorded a recent victory, and has produced form indicating progression from merely showing glimpses to actually delivering when it matters.
Crucially, it’s the ability to maintain position and respond to the race’s intensity that provides success in this contest, rather than the pure “raw” type that travels brilliantly over distance before flattening out.
Both Willie Mullins runners warrant attention, particularly Madness Delle, who remains relatively lightly-raced with clear potential for further development. However, the Fred Winter historically penalises short assessments severely. Sufficient depth exists within this handicap to render blind faith potentially hazardous.
Manlaga presents a neat profile for Henderson, though this represents a vastly different examination than a small-field novice event.
Ole Ole represents each-way value at larger odds. Whilst he has not yet achieved victory, three consecutive seconds suggest he’s running to a certain level—such types prove dangerous in this context if given sufficient room on their assessment. He appears to possess the style required to travel strongly behind the pace and collect the loose ends at the race’s conclusion.
Ultimately, the primary consideration centres not solely on talent but also on temperament, balance and the ability to cope with 20+ other competitors at Cheltenham.
Par & Paddock Tip: Winston Junior - 5/1
Each-way Value: Ole Ole - 14/1
Ultimate Handicap Chase Preview
The Ultimate demands a specific type of horse—not necessarily the flashiest or classiest, but rather an exceptional traveller with proven stamina and sufficient pace to secure a tactical position before the final climb. This year’s renewal follows that pattern.
Whilst many contenders boast excellent handicap form, several carry concerns. Some are weighted too heavily, others have been exposed previously, and a number would prefer softer ground than today’s conditions offer.
Jagwar fits the ideal profile perfectly. He has been improving steadily, possesses Cheltenham experience, and his overall credentials align closely with what this race demands. He should travel strongly, jump cleanly, and retain enough energy to withstand the final hundred yards’ pressure. His opening mark of around 152 is hardly generous, yet he remains achievable for a horse still progressing.
Iroko represents the obvious choice amongst the favourites. He possesses genuine quality and an impressive staying pedigree, though he carries considerable weight in a notoriously unforgiving contest. Johnnywho merits consideration based on his earlier form, though he lacks the ability to win comfortably. Handstands possesses speed but must still prove he remains as well handicapped as previously thought.
Imperial Saint offers genuine each-way value. Whilst less glamorous than alternatives, he delivered an impressive victory last time out, stays well, and remains reasonably handicapped for a large chase. With moderate weight and a solid profile suited to this race, he appears overpriced.
Par & Paddock Tip: - Jagwar 4/1
Each-way Value: Imperial Saint - 14/1
Champion Hurdle Preview
This year’s Champion Hurdle is exceptionally wide-open, with both favourites and contenders displaying vulnerabilities. Lossiemouth holds the upper hand with proven course-and-distance experience at Cheltenham, excellent travelling ability, and the closing speed typically required to win. She needs a clear run down the lane, but should conditions favour her, she represents the most probable winner.
However, Golden Ace offers compelling each-way value for money. Beyond attractive odds, her form is genuinely solid. Last year’s Champion Hurdle winner, she remains a legitimate top-three or four contender. Consistent this season with runner-up finishes to State Man end of last season and Sir Gino on Boxing Day, both excellent performers, she demonstrates she belongs in elite company. With previous Cheltenham success and a strong recent Kempton performance, she requires no significant improvement to justify each-way odds. A chaotic finish, hardly unlikely in this competitive field, could easily see her capitalise.
Brighterdaysahead possesses pure ability and strong Leopardstown form, but her underwhelming Festival performance last year warrants caution. She must prove she can replicate her best form at Cheltenham before meriting serious consideration.
The New Lion represents the most intriguing improver. His recent Cheltenham victory signals genuine progress, but the Champion Hurdle presents a far greater tactical challenge than he has previously encountered. Whilst talented, he faces a significant step up in class.
Supporting players Anzadam and Poniros lack the credentials for serious consideration. Alexei and Tutti Quanti, despite respectable records, require one additional improvement to win this event.
The race shapes up as follows: Lossiemouth sets the standard, The New Lion poses the greatest danger with upside potential, but Golden Ace represents the bettor’s value. Battle-hardened with proven Cheltenham form, she offers more substance than current market pricing suggests.
Par & Paddock Tip: Lossiemouth - 15/8
Each-way Selection: Golden Ace - 15/2
The Plate Handicap Chase
As expected, the Plate presents a difficult handicap puzzle during the Festival. With a big field, tight margins and numerous horses arriving with legitimate claims, finding the winner requires careful analysis.
In races like this, I favour a horse well-rated enough to handle the step up in grade whilst possessing the ability to travel and jump smoothly around Cheltenham.
Madara is the obvious call.
His recent second at Kempton just three days ago isn’t ideal on first glance, but it’s further evidence of his current well-being. More importantly, he ticks every box for this type of contest. Lightly raced for a seven-year-old with previous experience at this trip, he’s trained by the Skelton team, who consistently excel in Festival handicaps.
Off a mark of 140, Madara appears fairly treated in a race where many rivals carry question marks.
At the head of the weights, Dee Capo and Down Memory Lane bring strong Irish form but are conceding lumps of weight in a competitive heat with little margin for error. No Questions Asked boasts solid recent form but faces a significant step up from his success at Windsor.
Among the Irish challengers, Downmexicoway warrants serious consideration. His Leopardstown third reads well for this level, and a rating of 145 gives him every chance if the race unfolds favourably.
Zurich also holds appeal from a low weight and could outrun his odds.
Guard Your Dreams possesses valuable course form from his recent Cheltenham victory, though at ten years old, he faces an even stiffer test. Peaky Boy’s recent fall is concerning, given that clean jumping is paramount.
All considered, keep it simple. Madara is in form, suitably weighted and represents a yard that consistently targets races of this nature.
Par & Paddock Selection: Madara - 4/1
Par & Paddock Danger: Downmexicoway - 15/2
Par & Paddock Each-way Selection: Zurich - 9/1
The National Hunt Chase:
The National Hunt Chase over 3 miles 6 furlongs represents a true endurance test stamina and the ability to jump when exhausted will determine the outcome. As the final race on Day One, horses arrive tired, making proven staying power essential rather than merely advantageous.
Pic Roc may be the one.
Ben Pauling’s runner brings a significant advantage, having won decisively at Sandown over nearly this distance. In a race where stamina forms the entire basis for selection, that proven form is invaluable. Off a mark of just 141 and seemingly progressive, his profile suggests he’ll strengthen when faced with an end-to-end examination. He requires no improvement, merely a continuation of what he’s done so well already.
The market will naturally favour Backmersackme following his Leopardstown performance. Emmet Mullins understands these contests intimately, and the horse is highly regarded. However, this presents a completely different examination, and he’s priced too short in an event where margin for error proves crucial.
Kurasso Blue warrants interest despite being only five years old—a potential concern in such a demanding test. His Naas second suggested untapped potential, and Gordon Elliott has since targeted staying novice chases for him. Guard The Moon holds a reasonable mark following his Windsor success, whilst Grand Geste appears the type to plug away relentlessly when others reach their limit.
As a larger-price option, Walking On Air cannot be entirely dismissed. Fragile and high-risk, he retains vestiges of his former quality, and this marathon could suit him better than shorter contests if everything clicks over fences.
Nonetheless, percentages favour Pic Roc. He possesses the stamina evidence, arrives in good form and appears the sort to finish rather than falter.
Par & Paddock Each-way Selectio: Pic Roc - 14/1
Par & Paddock Each-way Selection: Grand Geste - 14/1
Day 1 - Each-way Lucky 15.
13:20 — Talk The Talk
16:00 — Golden Ace
16:40 — No Questions Asked
17:20 — Pic Roc