All prices from Betfair Sportsbook at the time of writing.
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13:20 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)
A complex young horse puzzle, but the markets have revealed much about the potential outcome. Willie Mullins appears to hold the upper hand, though sufficient depth exists for each-way betting at fairer prices.
Historic ratings show the Triumph typically favours lightly raced four-year-olds with huge upside potential. Vauban, Lossiemouth, Quilixios and Majborough all arrived with top stable profiles or untested hurdle form. This pattern points directly to the Mullins brigade.
Proactif is the obvious starting point at a short price. After a single hurdle start and Fairyhouse victory, he matches the classic Mullins profile: lightly raced, French-bred, heavily backed. At around 2.5, however, you’re paying for potential rather than proven Grade 1 performance.
Selma De Vary presents the more appealing each-way option near the top of the market. She receives the filly allowance, runs well off a strong Leopardstown second, and crucially, Paul Townend is booked—a significant stable signal. The hood remains on for early settling, and if she travels smoothly, she possesses the tactical speed required on good-to-soft ground.
Maestro Conti brings proven Cheltenham experience with a course-and-distance victory. Daniel Skelton’s runner offers the best British track form.
Highland Crystal appeals at a larger price. Unbeaten over hurdles with the filly allowance, her longer-distance victory suggests strong stamina. Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy aren’t here for the scenery.
Par and Paddack Tip: Selma De Vary 7/2
Each-Way Value: Highland Crystal 9/1
14:00 - County Hurdle
The County is usually won by a horse that travels, settles and can quicken late off a strong pace. This year’s renewal looks no different. The recent profile matters: winners have often sat in the 134–141 mark bracket, and hold-up horses have repeatedly come through late when the race collapses in front of them.
That makes Karbau the solid one. Willie Mullins has farmed this race, and Karbau fits the shape of a typical County player better than most. He is a six-year-old, arrives off a strong Naas second, is on a workable 150, and his recent figures suggest he is holding form without being overexposed. The market has him prominent for a reason. He does not have masses in hand off the mark, but he looks the likeliest winner if this turns into the usual turn-of-foot handicap.
For value, I want one from the middle and one from lower down.
Jubilee Alpha makes plenty of appeal each-way. She is already a course-and-distance winner, which is a proper asset in this race, and her Warwick second says she is in good order. A mark of 139 is right in the recent winning zone. Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden are not throwing darts here. She is a mare, but that is no negative in this race now, and she looks the type to be produced late and hit the frame.
The bigger-priced one is Secret Squirrel. He is not bombproof, but he has proper 2m1f form, two wins at the trip, and his Wincanton third last time suggested he is still on a competitive mark off 133. That figure is exactly where several recent County winners and placed horses have sat. If he gets a clean passage and the race sets up for something delivered late, he is overpriced.
Selections
Par and Paddack Tip: Karbau 4/1
Each-Way Value: Jubilee Alpha 14/1
Each-Way Value: Secret Squirrel 11/1
14:40 Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase (Grade 2)
This looks much less complicated than some of the handicaps earlier on the card. Dinoblue sets the standard on both class and course evidence, and she is the one I want.
She won this race last year and did it like the best mare in the field. The key point was not just the result, but the manner of it. She travelled strongly, jumped accurately enough when it mattered, and found after the last. That matters here because this race often goes to a mare who can hold her position around the home bend and then see it out up the hill.
Her profile is rock-solid. She arrives off a win at Naas, has proven Cheltenham course-and-distance form, and her mark of 159 leaves her clear of most of these on established ability. The historical ratings back that up too. Recent renewals have gone to mares with top-level chasing form and a touch of class rather than exposed grinders, and Dinoblue fits that template exactly.
The obvious danger is Spindleberry, especially from the same yard, but the Leopardstown pulled-up effort is not easy to ignore even if excuses can be made. Panic Attack is admirable and has course form, but this is a deeper race than the ones she has been winning. Diva Luna is progressive and respected, though she still has a bit to prove at this level.
Dinoblue is short enough, but sometimes the right play is the plain one. She has the best form, the best recent Cheltenham evidence, and the strongest overall profile.
Par and Paddock Tip: Dinoblue 2/1
15:20 Cheltenham — Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
A relentless test of stamina in which the market repeatedly gets fooled
This contest demands rhythm and survival as much as pure brilliance. Historical ratings reveal how profiles that impress early often fold under pressure, whilst genuine stayers who take their time frequently prevail. Success requires horses that jump well, travel smoothly and maintain their gallop. Class alone proves insufficient.
Thedeviluno presents an attractive proposition. His solid staying foundation includes victory over 5,390 yards, credentials that matter more here than in most Grade 1 novice hurdles. Whilst his recent form appears unremarkable on paper, it’s precisely the right type: solid, battle-hardened and progressive. At 4/1, he represents one of the safer options in what promises to be a competitive renewal featuring several aspiring stayers.
Moneygarrow also merits serious consideration. Having already triumphed at the maximum 3m trip, he’s proven superior to several fancier runners still establishing their credentials at this distance. He possesses the characteristics to continue finding when the tempo intensifies, typically the winning formula in the Albert Bartlett. Whilst not the best-rated contender, this race frequently becomes a test of character rather than finesse.
Doctor Steinberg remains appealing. He’s clearly the class act, arriving on a four-timer with the Mullins-Townend stamp of approval. However, historical data reminds us that this race can penalise horses lacking evidence of extreme stamina.
Par and Paddock Tip: Thedeviluno — 4/1
Each-Way Value: Moneygarrow - 16/1
16:00 Cheltenham – Gold Cup (Grade 1)
With the absence of Galopin Des Champs, this year’s Gold Cup becomes far more open and may favour horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina. On good to soft ground, the ability to travel strongly and quicken turning for home can often prove decisive over the Gold Cup trip.
Gaelic Warrior looks the most obvious class angle in the field. Rated 172, he brings the highest level of proven Grade 1 form and arrives after another strong effort when second at Leopardstown. His running style suggests he will be suited by a slightly better surface where his cruising speed can be used to full effect. While his winning form has come at slighter lesser trip, the extra furlong here should be within reach if he settles early. With Paul Townend aboard and the Mullins yard targeting the race, he looks the horse most likely to travel best through the contest.
The second selection is Grey Dawning, who looks particularly interesting under these conditions. A course winner at Cheltenham, he has already shown he handles the track and his best form has come when the ground is not overly testing. His recent form figures of 32P1213 suggest he has been competing consistently in high-quality staying chases. Importantly, he has already won at the trip, so the 3m2½f trip should not stretch him, and his solid jumping style is well suited to Cheltenham’s demanding finish.
There are other intriguing contenders. The Jukebox Man arrives in excellent form on a winning streak and continues to improve, but his victories have come over shorter trips, leaving a small stamina question in a Gold Cup. Jango Baie is another talented contender who should appreciate better ground, though this represents a new stamina test for him as well.
With conditions likely to reward class and efficient jumping rather than pure slogging stamina, the race may be decided by which horse can travel strongly and still find extra up the hill.
Selections
Par and Paddock Tip: Gaelic Warrior 15/4
Each-Way Value: Grey Dawning 12/1
16:40 - Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase
This looks the usual Festival hunters’ puzzle, but two stand out on the figures and on suitability for the test.
Its On The Line is the percentage call. Emmet Mullins’ nine-year-old arrives in strong form after a Down Royal win and his profile is rock-solid for a race like this. He has already raced over further than today’s trip, so stamina should not be an issue, and his form figures of 1123211 say he keeps turning up. Derek O’Connor is a major asset in this sphere and, in a race where rhythm and clean jumping matter, that counts for plenty. He does not need things bottomless either, so good-to-soft looks fine.
The other one is Wonderwall, who makes plenty of appeal at the head of the market. He is a course-and-distance winner, and that is a major plus in this race. Cheltenham’s hunters’ chase often goes to horses who already know their way round here, and his profile fits. He returned from a long break to win last time, which suggests he can be brought to peak for a target. The concern is the absence before that, but the proven track form is hard to ignore.
Par and Paddock Tip: Wonderwall 9/2 EW
17:20 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
A typically messy finale, but two make most appeal on the card.
Roc Dino looks the obvious one. He is only five, lightly raced, and comes here off form figures of 22 after just two hurdle starts. That leaves him open to much more improvement than most of these. He runs off 129, carries 156lb, and the move up in distance could unlock more, given he has only raced up to 2miles so far. In a Martin Pipe, that unexposed profile is often what you want.
The second pick is Jump Allen. He arrives in winning form after a Punchestown success, and his profile is solid enough for this sort of race. He has had only three runs this season, so there should still be something left in the tank, and he is proven to stay further than today’s trip, having run over 3m. That gives him a strong stamina angle if they go hard, which they usually do in this.
Par and Paddock Tip: Roc Dino 8/1 EW
Par and Paddock Tip: Jump Allen 8/1 EW