Farmers Insurance Open preview: Torrey Pines is back to being Torrey Pines
Two courses for two days. Then the South Course takes over and starts stripping paint.
Two courses for two days. Then the South Course takes over and starts stripping paint. A long, exposed, miss-it-by-a-yard test with a leaderboard that usually looks more like a major than a January reset.
Torrey Pines (South) is the anchor again this week: a par 72 at 7,765 yards, one of the longest setups on TOUR, with greens that sit among the harder targets to hit and an approach game that’s constantly stretched by long-iron yardages. The North Course is friendlier, but it’s not a pushover either; it’s been among the toughest courses for fairways to hit, and it has a habit of turning three-putts into the week’s quiet killer.
The field is properly loaded for a full-field stop: 27 of the world’s top 50, led by Xander Schauffele and J.J. Spaun, both with San Diego State ties. Past winners in the mix include Jason Day, Justin Rose, Max Homa, Matthieu Pavon and defending champion Harris English.
What the market is saying (Betfair)
Betfair has Schauffele as the clear favourite at 14/1, with Ludvig Åberg 18/1 and Patrick Cantlay 22/1 next in line. Then it compresses quickly: Gotterup and Cameron Young 25/1; a block at 28/1 including Spaun, Day, Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim and Zalatoris.
A second tier of interest: Maverick McNealy 30/1, then Jake Knapp and Taylor Pendrith 33/1, with Sam Stevens and Nicolai Højgaard 35/1.
And the headline returnee, Brooks Koepka, is priced at 60/1 (8 places each-way, 1/5).
Koepka returns: “a little bit more nervous… super grateful to be back”
This is Koepka’s first PGA TOUR start since 2022 and his first non-major TOUR appearance since he left. The mechanics matter: he’s back via the Returning Member Program, and the TOUR has expanded the field, so he’s not taking a spot from a member; that’s why you’re seeing 147 players this week.
Koepka didn’t dress it up on Tuesday. “It feels a little bit different,” he said, adding he’s “definitely a little bit more nervous this week just coming back… super grateful to be back.” The nerves, he admitted, weren’t only about the golf. He talked about being “overwhelmed” by messages from “guys on both sides”, and he wants to see how fans react when he tees it up. That’s not a small thing. Torrey is a proper, opinionated crowd when the wind is up and the scoring is down.
The reason for the move back was framed firmly as family-first. Koepka repeatedly pointed to “what was best for me and best for my family” and said circumstances changed around Ryder Cup week. He also made a point of what he missed: having his family around week to week. “My wife’s coming this week, my son’s coming this week,” he said, and the subtext was clear: the travelling circus only works if home can travel with you.
From a golf perspective, Torrey is a deliberately blunt first read on his level. Koepka called it a “tough golf course” that will “give me an idea where my game’s at.” That’s the right way to treat it. There are softer places to shake off rust; Torrey is not one of them. The upside is obvious: Koepka loves a grind, and he said exactly that, “that’s the fun part, I love the grind.” The downside is also obvious: he’s barely played this TOUR rhythm for three-and-a-half years, and even he is warning you it’s a “readjustment period.”
How Torrey usually crowns a winner
First: you can win here without fireworks. Harris English won last year with only 15 birdies, one of the lowest totals by a winner in decades, and still got it done because he didn’t bleed bogeys when the course tightened.
Second: putting can flip the week. English gained +6.04 strokes putting in 2025, one of the biggest winning totals at this event in the ShotLink era. That doesn’t mean “pick a hot putter and pray”. It means: your ball-striking gets you in the fight; your putting decides whether you’re holding the trophy or explaining a T7.
So the profile I want is simple:
long enough to survive the South Course,
good long-iron and approach numbers,
tidy scrambling when the greens repel,
and a putter that can have one special week.
Three angles to bet
1) Back the California class: Schauffele to win (14/1)
Schauffele is short, but it’s logical. His cut-making is relentless, 72 straight, and this event doesn’t reward chaos. At 14/1, he’s priced like a man who rarely hands you a missed cut and often hangs around the top 10. That’s Torrey insurance.
Bet: Xander Schauffele WIN (14/1).
2) Torrey history plus current edge: Jason Day each-way (28/1)
Day is a two-time winner here and the course suits his eye when the rough is thick and the holes feel like they narrow as the round goes on. The market has him in that 28/1 cluster with Spaun, Matsuyama and others. That’s a fair price for a player who knows exactly how to manage the South Course when par becomes a weapon.
Bet: Jason Day E/W (28/1, 8 places 1/5).
3) A proper Torrey fit at a price: Aaron Rai each-way (80/1)
Rai at Torrey makes sense if you think the week is decided by control more than adrenaline. He’s 80/1, which is the sort of number that lets you be wrong and still feel like you made a good bet. If the South Course plays like it usually does — awkward lies, long approaches, demanding targets — you want players who keep their shape under pressure and don’t panic when they’re putting for par from eight feet.
Bet: Aaron Rai E/W (80/1, 8 places 1/5).
What I’m not doing: buying the Koepka romance at 60/1
Koepka at 60/1 will tempt people who’ve missed him. And if you’re playing purely for story, the story is strong.
But this is a brutal “first look” venue, and Koepka’s own language is cautionary: nervous, readjusting, trying to find where his game is. That’s not the profile I want for an outright at Torrey in a deep field. If you want to involve him, I’d rather do it in match bets later in the week once we’ve seen the ball flight and the temperament.
Betting card (Betfair prices)
Schauffele WIN (14/1)
Day E/W (28/1, 8 places 1/5)
Aaron Rai E/W (80/1, 8 places 1/5)
If Torrey plays like Torrey, you’ll want patience, long irons, and a putting week that doesn’t blink. Everything else is noise.