Newbury — Saturday 7 February 2026
Heavy ground. Proper tests. Two Grade 2 chases that matter, and a William Hill Hurdle that will punish anything that can’t travel and jump.
13:00 — William Hill Racing Epic Boosts Novices’ Hurdle (2m½f, Class 3, Heavy)
What wins it: A novice who can jump in rhythm and keep galloping in the mud. Newbury’s long straight finds non-stayers out.
Key runners & ratings angles
Kadastral (3.5) — Top on total (631.3) and carries a strong speed/leveller base (77.6/11.7). Profile says he’s the best horse in the race, not the best-priced.
Sober Glory (2.2) — Clear class marker on the official mark (139) and solid speed (89.6). Ratings total (584.5) says he’s short enough.
Fantasy World (3.5) — Talent is obvious (best raw “last” figure), but the rating stack is thinner behind it than the top two.
Pick: Kadastral (3.5)
Why: He’s the strongest composite, and he’s the bet if you’re playing the day as a value exercise rather than a “banker” hunt.
13:35 — William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap Hurdle (3m1f, Class 3, Heavy)
What wins it: A stayer who can hold position without racing keen. Heavy + 3m1f = slow death for anything pulling.
Key runners & ratings angles
A Pai De Nom (2.63) — Best total (506.9) and the profile is clean: consistent recent stack, best trainer/jockey combo in the field for this level, and nothing screaming “fluke”.
Below The Radar (5.5) — Big “total” (458.0) at a price. The claim helps and this is the one your numbers say can grind into it if the favourite is forced into a scrap.
Crebilly (7.5) — Not flashy, but our speed/leveller combination is sturdy (87.2/0.0) and he’s the “place if others fail” type.
Pick: A Pai De Nom (2.63)
Angle: If you want a bet at odds, Below The Radar (5.5) reads like the value saver.
14:10 — Denman Chase (G2) (2m7½f, Heavy)
What wins it: Tactics and jumping. Four-runner Grade 2s are often decided by who travels best and who makes the first mistake.
Key runners & angles
L’Homme Presse (2.63) — Top total (567.3), narrowly ahead of the favourite. Speed/leveller are solid (85.3/0.0) and he comes here race-fit (14 days).
Haiti Couleurs (1.67) — Massive staying profile, strong total too (566.6), but at odds-on you’re paying for certainty you don’t always get in a tactical four-runner chase.
Leave Of Absence (13) — Better than a 13.0 shot in pure numbers (total 540.9). If you want a swing at a forecast/without the fav angle, he’s the one our table doesn’t hate.
Pick: L’Homme Presse (2.63)
Why: Our ratings say he’s the best bet in the race because he’s close to the favourite on ability but miles better on price.
14:45 — Game Spirit Chase (G2) (2m½f, Heavy)
What wins it: A two-mile-ish Grade 2 on heavy still rewards speed, but only if the jumping holds. One bad error and it changes.
Key runners & angles
Lulamba (1.67) — Clear top total (612.8) and the highest speed in the field (94.9). This is the “best horse wins” angle.
Saint Segal (6.0) — Next-best total (574.3). In a race where the favourite is short, this is the sensible each-way/without favourite type.
Calico (15) — Our numbers keep him in the mix (547.2). He’s overpriced if this turns into an attritional slog and others don’t finish their race.
Pick: Lulamba (1.67)
Note: If you’re trying to beat him in the place market, Saint Segal is the ratings-backed alternative.
15:20 — William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (2m½f, Class 1, Heavy)
What wins it: A horse who can travel, handle heavy, and still find off the turn. This is often won by something that looks “well in” and has the lungs for a slog.
Key runners & angles
Tutti Quanti (8.5) — Top total by a margin (567.7) and a strong speed/leveller blend (88.8/3.16). He’s high class, and your numbers say he’s the bet.
Let It Rain (3.25) — Second-best total (524.0) and the obvious market anchor. Our table respects her, it just prefers Tutti at the prices.
The Hardest Geezer (15) — Third on total (498.3). That’s a serious pointer: if he’s ridden to creep into it rather than chase the pace, he can outrun 15.
Hot Fuss (110) — Big raw “last” number and a solid total (445.8). Mud can bring him right into the places.
Pick: Tutti Quanti (8.5)
Why: This is your clearest “ratings vs market” disagreement on the card. If you trust the model, this is the swing.
15:55 — Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2m7½f, Class 3, Heavy)
What wins it: A novice who jumps when tired. This is the kind of race that collapses late.
Key runners & angles
Itseemslikeit (5.0) — Top total (464.2). Our model likes him most, and he’s not priced as if he’s a standout.
Captain Bellamy (6.5) — Second total (453.8) and a big jockey rating. If you’re playing place terms, he’s hard to ignore.
Knight Of Allen (7.5) — Third total (445.6). Honest profile and sits in that sweet spot where errors from the principals bring him in.
Pick: Itseemslikeit (5.0)
16:30 — Listed NH Flat Race (2m½f, Heavy)
What wins it: Bumpers on heavy are usually about stamina and position. It’s not the day for a flashy speedball who won on good ground.
Key runners & angles
No Walkover (3.25) — Best total (428.2) and it’s a clean profile. Our ratings say he should be favourite.
Risky Obsession (3.0) — Market likely prefers him, but our table has him a fair bit behind on total (401.3).
No Way Jay (13) — Second total (407.8) at a price. That’s a proper “model says he’s a runner” flag.
Pick: No Walkover (3.25)
Picks summary (one per race)
13:00 Kadastral (3.5)
13:35 A Pai De Nom (2.63)
14:10 L’Homme Presse (2.63)
14:45 Lulamba (1.67)
15:20 Tutti Quanti (8.5)
15:55 Itseemslikeit (5.0)
16:30 No Walkover (3.25)
Best bets
Best short-price chance: Lulamba (1.67) — top speed, top total, simplest winner on the card.
Each-way chance: Tutti Quanti (7.5) — strongest total in the feature handicap at a price that rewards the risk.
Outsider chance: No Way Jay (12) — second-best total in the bumper and priced like he’s an afterthought.
Great read ,just what I have been waiting fir. Nice explanation of horses and a selection. Will you he doing all races at Cheltenham.