Jake from Par and Paddock
(Gamble Responsibly 18+)
Saturday will be a busy racing day as we visit three different tracks hosting competitive race meetings: the flat, all-weather track at Lingfield; Fairyhouse, which is in the mud and Kempton, and its right-handed national hunt track.
If you’re betting, choose wisely and choose your battles.
Last week: how we did (from the Ascot/Haydock/Wincanton/Gowran preview)
Recommended tipping results from last week’s article:
Kingwell Hurdle: Rubaud – win at 5/2 (lost 2nd)
Grand National Trial: Richmond Lake – each way 8/1 (lost 8th)
Ascot Chase: Jonbon – win at 8/15 (Won)
Prestige novices’ hurdle: Legendary Luke – each way 6/1 (lost 4th)
KEMPTON
13:10 — Ladbrokes New Horse Racing Bet Builder Handicap Hurdle (2m5f)
You are looking for a horse that will travel well over hurdles, jump decent fences and won’t be left behind when lifted into second gear and turn for home.
Key runners:
Hold The Serve — he is a progressive horse, and there is plenty of respect from the market for him. SBK 9/4.
Favour And Fortune — he is classy at his best, but this is an examination for him since he’s had some time off. SBK 9/1.
Fasol — He is an honest horse and a solid runner, and he could find himself third or better without being out of the blue. SBK 9/2.
Grenadier Jed — A grinder with a bit of class to boot and more attractive if the race goes very quickly. SBK 6/1.
PADDOCK ANGLE
The ratings give Favour And Fortune a massive advantage on raw form, and the market makes him a value play. This is a classic “ability versus race situation” decision.
Consider:
Hold The Serve (to win) — He is the horse with momentum and the right build for Kempton.
Grenadier Jed (to each-way or cover) — At 6/1 he is the sensible save.
13:45 — Ladbrokes Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (2m)
In Kempton’s juvenile hurdle races, it often becomes a tactical sprint-fest for the better ones. These are the types of horses that will travel well, and then quickly accelerate once they reach the final furlong.
Key runners:
Precious Man – Market favourite. SBK 4/5.
One Horse Town – If things develop into a proper contest, then he is the obvious candidate. SBK 9/4.
Fantasy World – Interesting move from a yard that tends to place their horses fairly well. SBK 15/2.
Falls Of Acharn – Capable, but needs to demonstrate that he can handle the increased tempo. SBK 12/1.
Consider:
One Horse Town – I would prefer to back the horse with potential upside at a value price than pay odds on, in a juvenile hurdler.
Fantasy World – Each way type if you want to have another punt.
14:25 — Ladbrokes Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (2m 4½f)
It is not a certainty by any means. Small fields for novice chasers mean that you are essentially being paid for jumping ability and control.
Key runners:
Jax Junior – Strong running profile, and the market is very confident in his chances. SBK 8/11.
Go West – Most likely to test the others. SBK 15/8.
Jasmine Bliss – A capable mare, she will need all her stars to align. SBK 9/2.
Consider:
Jax Junior (Win) – If he jumps properly, then he will be difficult to beat in this four-runner contest.
15:00 — Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (2m)
This is a proper betting event: Numbers, Pace and Traffic likely to come into play.
Key players:
Double Measure – Strong yard, strong profile. SBK 4/1.
Mustang Du Breuil – Sharp form, and he may have a high ceiling. SBK 4/1.
Onlyforfrankie – Winner type that is likeable, but may be priced for what he has already achieved. SBK 6/1.
Klub De Reve – The yard that the Par & Paddock numbers continually pull me back to. SBK 6/1.
Consider:
Klub De Reve (E/W) – 6/1 in a novice grade 2 at Kempton is the type of bet that you can live with.
Mustang Du Breuil (Win Saver) – If he is as good as he looked last time then he is right in the mix.
15:35 — Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase (3m)
The big one. A Kempton 3mile handicap chase is not about “wearing down your rivals” it is more about rhythm, fractions and jumping at speed. There are plenty of runners that can be found out over this trip.
Key runners:
Katate Dori – Last year’s winner, obvious repeat bid. SBK 9/2.
Kdeux Saint Fray – Still learning and still improving, this trip could unlock him. SBK 9/2.
Hoe Joly Smoke – Interesting now back up in trip with Headgear. SBK 13/2.
Chance Another One – The Mullins angle; Could leave recent performances behind. SBK 7/1.
The Doyen Chief – Hard to fault at Kempton, and the price is reasonable. SBK 8/1.
Consider:
The Doyen Chief (E/W) – He is a Kempton operator and 8/1 is a reasonable price in this event.
Katate Dori (Win Saver) – The most “solid all-round” runner in the field.
16:05 — Join Ladbrokes Bet £5 Get £30 Handicap Chase (2m 4½f)
A race that can become messy if they set a fast pace early. I am looking for a runner who can jump under pressure.
Key runners:
Bad – Loves Kempton and comes into the race in good form. SBK 11/5.
Viroflay – Respected, but needs it to come together perfectly. SBK 9/1.
Riskintheground – Huge price, but if the race collapses, he is the type of runner that can stumble into a position. SBK 30/1.
Consider:
Bad (Win) – Good track record at Kempton and the market has him spot on.
Riskintheground (Long Shot) – The 30/1 is the point, not the certainty.
16:40 — NH Flat Race (2m)
Flat racing is about engine and education. I’ll keep it simple: Follow the runners that acted like proper horses first time.
Key Runners (Betting forecast):
Merlin Allen – 4/1
Red Metal – 9/2
Le Roi Remi – 11/2
Smile John Boy – 6/1
Consider:
Red Metal — Looks like the type you keep on side in flat racing bumper events.
Merlin Allen — Obvious danger, and a reasonable price.
FAIRYHOUSE
15:15 — BAR 1 Betting Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 3) (3m 2f, Heavy)
Heavy going and a long trip. Stamina will be the key, then jumping.
Key runners:
Grangeclare West – Leading contender. SBK 5/2.
Spanish Harlem – Classy, but one bad jump and it all goes wrong. SBK 7/2.
Three Card Brag – Solid profile and could simply keep galloping. SBK 7/2.
Captain Cody – Talent is there, but needs a clean round. SBK 7/1.
Consider:
Grangeclare West (Win) — If he doesn’t fall over and keeps going the distance, he is the one.
Three Card Brag (Cover) — Reliable sort for heavy going and a long trip.
LINGFIELD
13:25 — Midnite Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed) (5f)
Lingfield sprints are harsh on those who hesitate. What you need is speed, a clear run and a jockey prepared to commit.
Key runners:
Diligent Harry – Obvious on class. SBK 7/4.
Valiant Force – Respected at the front of the market. SBK 7/4.
Leovanni – The one I keep returning to at a price. SBK 10/3.
Democracy Dilemma – If it develops into a close finisher then he is a player. SBK 4/1.
Consider:
Leovanni — Best price/chance in my opinion for the race.
14:00 — Midnite Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) (1m 2f)
Proper All Weather group event. Positioning is important. Acceleration from a solid pace is also a factor.
Key runners:
Chancellor – Top of the market. SBK 9/5.
Nebras – Good alternative. SBK 15/8.
Boiling Point – Consistent and dangerous. SBK 5/2.
Sky Safari – Each way shape if you are playing forecasts. SBK 9/2.
Consider:
Chancellor (Win) — Ratings and the market both suggest that Chancellor is the runner to beat. That normally makes sense.
5 Paddock Tips
Best Bets (2)
Chancellor — SBK 9/5 (Lingfield 14:00)
Jax Junior — SBK 8/11 (Kempton 14:25)
E/W (2) — Must be 6/1+
Klub De Reve — SBK 6/1 (Kempton 15:00)
The Doyen Chief — SBK 8/1 (Kempton 15:35)
Long Shot (1) — Must be 12/1+
Riskintheground — SBK 30/1 (Kempton 16:05)