The American Express preview: three courses, one Sunday exam
A birdie-fest on paper. A decision-making contest in reality.
A birdie-fest on paper. A decision-making contest in reality. The American Express gives you three par 72s to fill your boots, then asks you to close on Pete Dye’s Stadium Course with the tournament on the line.
Event snapshot
Dates: 22–25 January 2026
Venue: La Quinta, California
Format: Three-course rotation (first three rounds), final round at PGA West (Stadium Course)
Field: 156 players
Purse: $9.2m (winner $1.656m)
The American Express remains one of the few proper throwbacks on Tour: a pro-am week, which changes the tempo and can take a round’s edge off early. But the leaderboard doesn’t care. If you start slowly, you’re chasing immediately.
The courses: where it’s won
Three par72s. Three different flavours. One key point: Sunday is always on the Stadium Course and that’s the part that bites.
Rotation (par/yardage):
PGA West (Stadium Course) – Par 72, 7,210 yards
Nicklaus Tournament Course – Par 72, 7,147 yards
La Quinta Country Club – Par 72, 7,060 yards
What to watch
Scoring pace: this tournament routinely runs to -20 and beyond. It is not enough to “play well”. You must convert.
Wedges and short irons: plenty of same-y numbers, lots of chances, and a premium on distance control.
Stadium Course finish: Pete Dye doesn’t hand you a free closing stretch. The visuals, angles and late-round choices can flip momentum fast.
Weather watch
Early indications for La Quinta across the tournament window: warm desert conditions, light-to-moderate winds, and a small chance of showers on some days. If it stays calm, expect the winning number to keep falling. If gusts appear late, Sunday at the Stadium Course becomes far less comfortable.
Recent trend: how this is typically won
This is a scoring week, but the winners don’t just shoot one silly round. They stack four days of pressure-free birdie looks and avoid the one stretch of bad decision-making that costs you a double on Dye.
Defending champion Sepp Straka returns after winning at -25 in 2025, holding off Justin Thomas by two. That tells you the baseline: you’re probably going to need mid-20s under to lift the trophy.
The field: proper January star power
The market says it plainly: Scottie Scheffler headlines this week, with Straka back to defend. In behind come names like Ludvig Åberg, Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Robert MacIntyre, Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark and more.
The market: 8 places EW changes the playbook
Betfair’s 8 places each-way (1/5 odds) fits this event. Three courses can compress the field. A soft scoring environment can also produce a “random” contender who stays hot for 72 holes.
Betfair snapshot (8 places EW, 1/5):
Scheffler 3/1, Henley 20/1, Åberg 22/1, Griffin 22/1, MacIntyre 22/1, Burns 25/1, Cantlay 28/1, Si Woo Kim 28/1.
(Prices move quickly — treat as a moment-in-time reference.)
Players to watch
The favourites
Scottie Scheffler (3/1)
It’s his first PGA Tour start of 2026, so the only question is sharpness. This tournament doesn’t give you time to “find it”. But if he’s anywhere near baseline, he’s the player most likely to separate on Sunday when the Dye questions start arriving.
Russell Henley (20/1)
Henley is built for weeks where the job is repetitive excellence: wedge it close, make the putts you should, don’t do anything heroic. In an 8-place market, he’s a high-floor contender who doesn’t need a miracle to contend.
Mid-priced threats
Ludvig Åberg (22/1)
Ceiling is not the issue. If he starts fast, he can make this feel like a runaway. The key is discipline. When a course offers ten chances, and you only take six, you must stay patient, not force it.
Sam Burns (25/1)
This is the Burns sweet spot: confidence golf, streaky scoring, a week where you can shoot a number that scares the field. The risk is always the same: one sloppy spell that turns a birdie week into a scrambling week.
Sepp Straka (35/1)
Defending champion comfort is real at this event because the pro-am rhythm can throw players off early. Straka knows exactly how the week should feel, and he’s already proved he can close at the Stadium Course.
Outsiders with a route
Ryan Gerard (50/1)
A price that gives you room. If the formula is “make everything from 8–15 feet and avoid the one disaster hole on Sunday”, he’s the kind of profile that can drift into the late mix.
Justin Rose (55/1)
Not the trendy play. But Rose has always understood when a low-scoring week still demands restraint. If Sunday tightens up, he’s one of the few who won’t get emotional about it.
Tips (8 places EW, 1/5)
Favourite: Russell Henley (20/1) – Each-way
High-floor pick for a three-course shootout. Plenty of wedge looks, sensible scoring, and 8 places protects you if it turns into a sprint.
Mid-priced: Ludvig Åberg (22/1) – Each-way
Ceiling play. If he comes out fast, he can win this by the turn on Friday. The each-way angle is about riding the birdie bursts.
Mid-priced: Sepp Straka (35/1) – Each-way
Defending champion comfort matters in a pro-am week. He knows when to press once the rotation ends and Sunday becomes the Stadium Course.
Outsider: Justin Rose (55/1) – Each-way
A Sunday hedge. If the finish asks for discipline more than fireworks, Rose is one of the few who’ll welcome that.Odds shown from Betfair’s 8-place each-way market at the time of writing.
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