WM Phoenix Open preview: noise, nerves and a familiar favourite
TPC Scottsdale doesn’t just host a PGA Tour stop. It stages a four-day live experiment in distraction.
TPC Scottsdale doesn’t just host a PGA Tour stop. It stages a four-day live experiment in distraction. The “Arizona Desert People’s Open” is back 5–8 February 2026, and the week always feels like golf played inside a festival.
The madness (and why it matters)
If you’re new to this one (were you under Tigers rock), here’s the quick primer: TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course is built to be attacked, and the crowd is built to be loud. That combination creates a strange kind of pressure, not just on Sunday, but on Thursday morning when a player realises he’s about to hit a short iron into a stadium.
The centrepiece is the par-3 16th (“the Coliseum”), a 163-yard shot that can make a season highlight or a week-long headache. You can hit it close and still feel like you’ve “lost” if it doesn’t finish inside ten feet. You can also bail out, take par, and get booed like you’ve committed a crime.
And then there are the aces. Tiger Woods’ 1997 hole-in-one at 16 remains the defining clip, the roar, the arms, the beer shower. It’s not just folklore: since the event moved to the Stadium Course era, there have been only 12 aces at the 16th, rare enough that when it happens, the tournament briefly stops being a golf event and turns into crowd management.
This year, the organisers have also leaned into the spectacle with fresh “what’s new” changes around the week (and the Coliseum experience).
Course check: what actually wins here
Par 71, 7,261 yards. Overseeded Bermudagrass tee-to-green. The scoring history tells you everything: Thomas Detry won at -24 last year (not defending, but leading after Round 1 at LIV Golf Riyadh), Nick Taylor at -21 the year before.
The profile is familiar:
Make birdies in clusters (there’s too much scoring out there to hang on).
Control wedges into receptive greens.
Keep doubles off the card (water and desert lurk, especially when you chase).
The favourite: can Scheffler keep swatting everyone away?
Scottie Scheffler arrives as the gravitational pull of this tournament, two-time Phoenix winner and playing with the sort of baseline that turns “B+” golf into top-10s. He’s also coming in with genuine momentum after winning The American Express in his season debut.
Betfair’s exchange market reflects that gap: Scheffler ~3.6 to win (decimal). That’s short, and for good reason, but this tournament does have a recent habit of letting chaos creep in when the scoring gets silly and the margins tighten.
Who looks ready to challenge him?
A few obvious angles this week:
Xander Schauffele (≈22): the “no surprises” profile that fits Scottsdale, premium tee-to-green, low panic levels, and needs to bounce back after missing his first “cut” in a long time at Torrey Pines.
Cameron Young (≈26): built for birdie races; if the putter behaves for four days, he can outpace almost anyone.
Hideki Matsuyama (≈29–34): a two-time winner here and still one of the best iron players in the field when it’s on.
Si Woo Kim (≈30–38): arrives with form after finishing tied second at Torrey Pines last week.
Brooks Koepka (≈46–70): the course has suited him before; the question is how sharp he is week-to-week right now after a modest return at Torrey.
(And yes, the field is pretty loaded again.)
Players to watch
Scheffler– the best “floor” in the sport; wins here don’t need perfection.
Schauffele – fits the rhythm of Scottsdale: steady ball-striking, minimal mess.
Young – upside play in a sprint; birdie-maker when it turns into target practice.
Si Woo Kim – trending; Torrey runner-up and good enough to ride a hot putter for four days.
Jordan Spieth – volatile, yes. But Scottsdale is a place where creativity can still steal you 64s.
Three picks
1) Top 10 play: Jordan Spieth – Top 10 @ ~6.6
That’s a chunky number for a player who can still spike on courses where imagination matters. If the driver is merely “fine”, his scoring bursts can do the rest.
2) Mid-price outright: Si Woo Kim – Win @ ~30–34
He was right there at Torrey (tied second), and Scottsdale often rewards players who are confident enough to keep firing at flags. In a birdie fest, I’d rather back someone arriving hot than someone searching.
3) Outsider outright: Harry Hall – Win @ ~80–110
This is a “ceiling week” bet: if it becomes a putting contest late on Sunday, Hall can absolutely run hot enough to scare the big names. At triple figures, you’re buying volatility, which is exactly what this tournament sells.
Gamble Responsibly 18+