Ascot, Haydock, Wincanton & Gowran Park Saturday 14 February 2026
Heavy ground, proper trials, and one Grade 1 that’s all about class and stamina.
Last week’s Best Bets (Newbury, Sat 7 Feb) – how we did.
From our Newbury preview, the three “Best Bets” landed like this (starting prices):
Lulamba – WON (4/11)
Tutti Quanti – WON (10/3)
No Way Jay – 9th of 10 (unplaced)
The big picture
An “arctic blast” and inspections are part of the day’s story. Ascot avoids an early check, but Wincanton and Haydock were flagged for morning inspections. That matters because the market will move sharply once clerks confirm the going rate.
Below: race-by-race angles using some insights from our ratings set with Betfair prices where available. Anything bigger than 6/1 treat as each-way if you are following.
13:05 Wincanton – Agatha Christie Mares’ Novices’ Chase (Listed)
Ground: Heavy. Field: 6.
The shape of the race
On our numbers, this is basically a match in two: Bluey (total 524) and Queens Gamble (total 472). The rest look like they’re playing for places.
Why Bluey edges it
Tops our ratings in the field and the most complete profile for a slog.
The market has it tight at the head, but the ratings say Bluey should be the favourite.
Selection: BLUEY (win 4/7)
Alternative: Queens Gamble (win 9/5)
13:20 Gowran Park – Red Mills Trial Hurdle (Grade 3)
Ground: Heavy. Field: 8.
The shape of the race
Our numbers scream Storm Heart (total 549) as the standard-setter. The value question is what comes next.
The bet
Storm Heart is the clear top on ratings and will take plenty of beating if he’s the same horse as last time.
At prices, Kel Histoire (total 500) makes more appeal as the “get paid if the favourite falters” option.
Tip: STORM HEART (win 11/8)
Value: KEL HISTOIRE (each-way 9/1)
13:35 Wincanton – Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2)
Ground: Heavy-soft in places. Field: 4.
Market vs ratings
Betfair is showing Alexei 4/6, Rubaud 5/5, Secret Squirrel 5/1, Intellotto 14/1.
Our ratings, though, make Rubaud the top on (719), ahead of Alexei (602).
Read it as a test, not a sprint
Heavy ground at Wincanton turns this into a strength contest. If Alexei gets an uncontested rhythm, he can boss it. But on our figures, Rubaud has the higher ceiling.
Tip: RUBAUD (win 5/2)
Forecast angle: Rubaud/Alexei reverse forecast (small).
13:50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Ground: Soft. Field: 3.
What matters
A proper three-mile novice chase at Ascot rewards jumping under pressure and staying power.
The bet
Our ratings have The Jukebox Kid (615) narrowly on top, but the price is short. The value for Western Knight is 10/3 is in our market file, with a profile that screams “keeps galloping”.
Tip: THE JUKEBOX KID (win 4/6)
Value: WESTERN KNIGHT (10/3)
14:05 Haydock – Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2)
Ground: Soft. Field: 6.
The anchor
Kabral Du Mathan is the clear class act on ratings (total 650) and should run his race. But he’s short and Haydock’s long run-in can make it uncomfortable if the tempo lifts.
Where the value is
Henri The Second (total 559) is the one I’d want onside at a price if the favourite hits a flat spot.
Tip: KABRAL DU MATHAN (win 4/6)
Value: HENRI THE SECOND (each-way 15/2)
14:40 Haydock – Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Ground: Soft. Field: 10.
A proper staying novice race
This is where “unexposed” matters. Stayers can improve 10lb when asked a new question.
The bet
Our ratings put Legendary Luke top on ratings (546), and he’s sitting around 6/1 in the market, which is an each-way price in a race with depth.
Tip: LEGENDARY LUKE (each-way, 6/1)
Danger: Reckless Spending (short enough, but solid 9/2).
15:00 Ascot – Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Ground: Soft. Field: 11.
Handicap logic
In these big Ascot chases, I want:
proven stamina,
a profile still moving forward,
and a mark that’s workable.
The bet
Our top rated is Your Darling (522), and he’s 9/1, that’s a fair each-way bet in a race where plenty have questions.
Tip: YOUR DARLING (each-way 9/1)
Each-way saver: Sam Brown (each-way 14/1) if you believe the old boy still has one big day left.
15:15 Haydock – Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Ground: Soft (soft-heavy in places per inspection notes). Field: 11.
What wins this race
You need a stayer who keeps jumping when the others are wading.
The bet
Our top rated is Deafening Silence (497) at about 4/1. The value each-way is Richmond Lake (total 489) at around 8/1, a proper grinder’s price.
Tip: DEAFENING SILENCE (win 4/1)
Value: RICHMOND LAKE (each-way, 8/1)
15:35 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1)
Ground: Soft. Field: 6.
Prices
Betfair shows: Jonbon 8/15, Pic D’Orhy 7/4, Edwardstone 12/1, with the rest huge.
The race
This is Jonbon stepping into a deeper stamina test. The numbers say he’s miles clear on ratings (910), and Ascot on soft is about control and class.
Pic D’Orhy is the obvious threat. He jumps, travels, and loves Ascot. But if Jonbon runs to his rating, it’s only tactics that beat him.
Tip: JONBON (win 8/15)
Exacta/forecast: Jonbon / Pic D’Orhy.
15:40 Gowran Park – Red Mills Chase (Grade 2)
Ground: Heavy. Field: 4.
The angle
With four runners, this is often run like a chess match. Our ratings make Impaire Et Passe the clear best on ratings (715), but he’s coming off a long break (291 days). If he’s ready, he wins. If not, Sa Fureur is the one most likely to capitalise.
Tip: IMPAIRE ET PASSE (win 8/11)
Alternative: Sa Fureur (win 9/4)
Par & Paddock Saturday slip (team-sheet)
Kingwell Hurdle: Rubaud – win 5/2
Grand National Trial: Richmond Lake – each-way 8/1
Ascot Chase: Jonbon – win 8/15
Prestige Novices’ Hurdle: Legendary Luke – each-way 6/1